by Osman Hassan
Thursday, December 16, 2010
In an article in WDN entitled " The Changing Political Landscape in the Horn of Africa", Mohmamed Obsiye has presented a rosy picture and dazzling prospects for the secessionist heartland in NW Somalia, otherwise calling itself "Somaliland". The message he is conveying is that a new era has dawned for the enclave and that the recognition they have been yearning for so long is at last on the horizon and within their reach. Mr. Obsiye's upbeat assessment, shared by his fellow separatist circles, is based on misguided interpretation of recent development in the enclave.
Each time an apparent silver lining is sighted in the clouds, the same old triamphalist mantra is recycled that Somaliland is out of the woods, that its peaceful democratic metamorphosis is a model for the Horn if not for the whole of Africa, and that this time it will be rewarded to fulfil its cherished destiny. Is there something new this time as Mr. Obsiye would have us believe or is he simply building castles in the air? That is the question I will address in this article.
False Expectations fror the Presidential Election
When it comes to Somaliland's political landscape, Mr Obsiye is right to point to the enclave's relative peace, its modicum of democracy, and its presidential election, albeit boycotted by the unionist regions of Sool, Sanaag and Cayn (SSC). Admittedly, all these achievements, separately or collectively, did earn them plaudits from their western admirers. But he is wrong to conclude that the election by itself heralds any fundamental turnaround for the enclave, to the extent of ushering its recognition.
Holding free and fair elections in Somaliland might be a small plus, but far from being the decisive factor that can sway the foreign policies of key Western governments. If elections were so important, the USA would have respected the 2006 Palestinian Legislative election which was won by Hamas. More tellingly, they would not have established close strategic relations with some of the most autocratic, repressive and reactionary regimes in the world, notably those in the Middle East, where elections are unknown, or are a sham as we recently witnessed in Egypt.
What counts for the USA is realpolitick and not so much elections or democracy per se. A country's size and influence, and its economic and political weight in the region are what matters- none of which can be attributed to Somaliland. Its only asset is its strategic position on the Gulf of Aden but then the USA already have a foothold in Djibouti and can afford to ignore Somaliland's seductive and persistent overtures.
The Looming Dark Image
The reality Mr. Obsiye does not want to face or acknowledge is that any positive spin-off from the election, in terms of winning hearts and minds in the West, would be transient as people in the outside world forget about it, either because memories are short-lived and inevitably fade away, or because these perceptions are superseded by other less favourable ones. Whatever endearing image Somaliland has projected after the election would be negated by adverse publicity fallouts from its suppression of the armed struggle of the SSC people to end the occupation of their regions.
As the SSC struggle is waged, it is bound to unmask Somaliland's true face: that, no matter how it is packaged, it remains a one-clan based entity occupying unionist clans and regions against their will in order to force them to join the secession; that it commits widespread human rights violations in maintaining its occupation; and that in the end there is no true peace and stability in Somaliland.
As Somaliland gets mired in clan conflict, it will be like anywhere else in Somalia if not worse. All these likely negative scenarios will ensure that the enclave's long-nurtured, skin-deep image as an oasis of peace, democracy and stability will fall by the wayside. It will be a historical irony that an entity that has done everything possible to paint itself whiter than white in order to distance and differentiate itself from the rest of conflict-ridden Somalia should in the end fall down from its pedestal and join the club.
The Ethiopian Connection
Is Ethiopia contemplating to recognise Somaliland? That is what is doing the rounds among the secessionists. Somaliland's political leaders and their commentators, often driven by wishful thinking, or the need to play to their domestic audiences, tend to go over the top in putting too much spin on their relations with Ethiopia (and lately Djibouti)
We need to remind ourselves that each time a Somaliland president and his foreign minister go on an official visit to Addis Ababa and return home, they would predictably talk in glowing terms about their highly successful visit without giving specifics. The fact of the matter is that the gaping asymmetrical relations between Ethiopia and Somaliland has not changed since the enclave declared its secession. Somaliland allowed itself to be a virtual Ethiopian dominion . All they get in return is to be treated as a separate country from Somalia which suits Ethiopia and is therefore only too happy to oblige.
Contrary to what we hear from spin doctors, Ethiopia has no intention to recognise Somaliland apart from keeping the door open just to nourish their false hope - a game in which they excel. No country is more vulnerable to separatist nationalities than Ethiopia itself. Both the Ogaden and Oromia would be the first to breakaway from the empire given the chance. And there is no knowing where that domino effect will end.
The USA Connection
The recent announcement by the USA Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Mr. Johnnie Carson, that they will henceforth engage the two clan-based northern regional administrations- Puntland and Somaliland- and provide humanitarian and development assistance- only means that they have belatedly recognised the danger of their focus on Mogadishu all these years to the neglect of the rest of the country, particularly those functioning regional administrations. As usual, the secessionists are putting too much unrealistic expectation on this policy shift.
The fact of the matter is that the USA and the wider international community, apart from Ethiopia, have enough problems on their hands in dealing with the failed state and have nothing to gain from courting additional ones - witness Al Shabaab, the sea piracy, and the humanitarian crisis. But it could get much worse if the USA were to recognise Somaliland or even establish strategic relations. It can assure itself deep and lasting hostility from the rest of Somalia; it will add fuel to the on-going conflict between the SSC people and their secessionist occupiers; and it will hand propaganda bonanza to Al Shabaab and a Jihadist cause to takeover the north, the very thing the USA wants to ward off.
Far worse, it will open a Pandora's box inside Somalia. Other clans and regions may follow Somaliland's footsteps and also secede. And outside Somalia, other separatist nationalities will no doubt clamour for the right to secession and recognition. The USA had burned its fingers in its bungled interventions in Somalia in the past with disastrous consequences for all concerned. One would therefore expect them to be wary to rush into another misguided adventure with little to gain and much to lose from it. Rather, their interest lies in working for a united federal and stable Somalia that lives at peace with itself and with its neighbours.
Having got now where for nearly twenty years with their lopsided and fruitless attention to stabilise Mogadishu and restore a functioning government for Somalia, a USA policy reappraisal has been in the works for sometime that entails a broadening of attention to other parts in Somalia where "stability" prevails, not exclusively Somaliland and Puntland, so long they are not under Al Shabaab.
The USA sees Al Shabaab as the greatest threat to its security in the region. Having failed to defeat them in the south, America's new strategy and its offer of aid is primarily driven by the belief that a better off people in Somaliland and Puntland and other stable areas are less likely to be receptive to Al Shabaab extremist doctrines
The problem for the USA in Somaliland is that it is engaged in an armed struggle with unionist clans that are adamant to remain part of Somalia. The USA policy shift may therefore make matters worse to the extent that Somaliland may misconstrue it as an endorsement of its secessionist stance and its repression of the occupied SSC people. That would be self-defeating for both the USA and its new protégé as the SSC are bound to ultimately prevail over their occupiers.
On the other hand, the USA policy shift could be for the common good. Mindful of Somalia's clan turmoil in the south, and drawing lessons from its own failed initiatives since the collapse of the Somali State, the USA could persuade or pressure Somaliland to end its secession, or at least respect the will of the SSC people and withdraw from their regions. That will be a major contribution to peace and stability in the region. Time will tell whether the Americans are that far-sighted, or whether they will replicate once again their blunders in the south
Somaliland's Achilles Heels
If there is one important lesson from Somalia's tumultuous history since independence, it is that no one can force a region or clan against their will to remain part of Somalia, or Somaliland or any other entity. Union at the national, regional or clan level is based on consensus, consent and on the will of the people. No one knows this better than the Isaak clan and their present leader, Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud (Siilaanyo).Under the banner of their Somali National Movement (SNM), and under his leadership, they rose up against what they considered Siyad Barre's tyranny in the 1980s and defeated his mighty army, admittedly in collusion with other clan-based dissident insurgents.
Unfortunately, they have learnt nothing from their own history. Yesterday's victims are today's victimizers. Somaliland, under Siilaanyo, is now doing to the unionist SSC regions precisely what Siyad Barre did to them over 20 years ago: Occupation, oppression, displacement, land grab, and ethnic-cleansing are, among other things, the stock in trade of the new colonisers.
One thing is for certain: the SSC regions, just like the Isaak before them, will fight off their occupiers and liberate themselves no matter how long it takes. The sooner the secessionists realise that the SSC regions are Somaliland's Achilles heels, which will bring its eventual demise and downfall, the better for all concerned.
It is not too late for Siilaanyo to change course and accept the inevitable reality that the SSC, the descendents of the Darwish, who sacrificed so much for the defence of the Somali homeland against foreign colonisers, will never accept their separation from Somalia and the union. As a statesman in his own right, whose track record in his service for Somalia and his own enclave is second to none, his election has raised high hopes that here at last was a leader who could take the bull by the horns and end their occupation of the SSC regions if not the secession. He give up the SSC regions, but that is ineluctable anyway. But at least he would have salvaged the historical bonds between the peoples in this region. That would be a major achievement for which posterity would remember him and be thankful.
Osman Hassan
E-mail: [email protected]