by Dalmar Ugas
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Believe it or not but this will happen. Before I write anything more, let’s agree on the following facts: 1) America and its western allies will not allow Al-Shabab to rule Somalia. 2) Sooner or later Al-Shabab will defeat the TFG, Ahlu-Suna and Hizbu-Islam. 3) Ethiopia, Kenya, America and Europe are very unlikely to send troops to Somalia. 4) International recognition of Somaliland is very unlikely. 5) Al-Shabab inspiration is to rule all of Somalia (Puntland, Somaliland and South Central Somalia). 6) Al-Shabab will not negotiate with anyone in regard to how to govern Somalia.
So given those facts, let’s examine how America can achieve its strategic objective of defeat Al-Shabab. To get the strategic defeat of Al-Shabab the final fight must be a fought by Somalis themselves. Somalis will be divided into two camps: one that believes in Al-Shabab ideology and another that believes in hybrid model of Somali culture mixed with western style democracy. The question is who will do the fighting? I believe its Somaliland. Somaliland will not be recognized because it’s the only place that has sort of a western style democratic government, peace and prosperity where an army can be trained and equipped which is still part of Somalia. If Somaliland is recognized, the ultimate fight will be internationalized and this is unacceptable to America and its allies.
As you all know, since the election of the new Somaliland president – the call for Somaliland to play critical role to bring peace in Southern Somalia is getting loader and loader. The drum beats are coming from Somalis from the South (including current TFG president) and the international community. Ask yourself, why now? Why not two or three years ago? First, there is the believe that the president-elect has personal aspiration to become the president for all Somalia, secondly, the international community have finally realized Somalis cannot be controlled and finally America and its allies now have a western style democracy(Somaliland people) right next to Al-Shabab that at any cost defend independency and way of life.
I know I have raised issues that may not unfold as described in this writing but in logical sense “when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”.
Bottom line, Somaliland should be preparing for a final fight to defend their new democracy if international recognition does not materialize and Al-Shabab takes control of entire Southern part of Somalia. There are no other options.
Thanks,
Dalmar Ugaas, USA
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