Hiiraan Online

by Abdirashid Elmi, Ph.D.
Sunday, July 18, 2010

Brief historical perspective: Somalia was the first African nation where peaceful transfer of power, through democratic process, was achieved after gaining its independence. Unfortunately, that system of governance could not last long enough to develop and flourish for reasons beyond the scope of this article. After the military coup on October 1969, in which the elected civilian government was overthrown, freedom of expression and assembly, which are the cornerstones in democratic societies, were the first casualties. As a result, no alternative national figures were allowed to emerge and last under Gen. Mohamed Siad Barre regime.  

The mounting opposition that was not allowed to be expressed in a constitutional fashion (Parliament, Press, Political parties) under military regime took in the form of armed struggle waged by clan-based guerilla movements. Since claiming presidency in dictatorial systems is an existential challenge, which allows little or no margin of error, military leadership relied heavily on internal repression to silence their opponents. This has resulted in barbarous acts of violence. The human, social, and economic costs have been colossal, leading ultimately to the collapse of the regime and with it the once-proud nation of Somalia.

Since the collapse of the military regime, Somalia has gone through copious cycles of violence under various names and constantly shifting alliances. There have been many attempts to restore stability; 15 political reconciliation conferences have been organized, the last of which recently concluded in neighboring Djibouti, where one group of the Union of the Islamic Courts, headed by Sh. Sharif, has become part of the Transitional Unity Government (TUG). The other two factions, Asmara wing of the Union of the Islamic Courts and Al-Shabab Al-Mujahideen opposed, at varying motives, to this government.

Some of the differences between Sh. Sharif and his Islamist opposition are of political nature, while some others are ideological. All the factions agree on the generalities of implementation of the Islamic Sharia, but their views differ substantially on the details, ranging from simplistic to strategic. Recognition of these differences was a necessary first step in creating an environment conducive to dialogue. Unfortunately, like many others, this was yet another missed opportunity, leading the situation in much of southern Somalia to spiral into another devastating conflict with no potential solution insight.

Colossal cost of conflict’s: As a direct result of two decades of hostility, millions of Somalis have been made as refugees. According to the UN figures there are over 1.4 million internally displaced persons, some 600,000 refugees and nearly 3 million people reliant on aid, out of a total population of nearly eight million. In any way you cut it, this is a bleakly grim statistic. What is more, the state of affairs in the south does seem as hopeless as it was in 1991, when the central government collapsed and violent rebels started fighting for control. The only difference is that the key players of the current round of the Somali conflict are almost exclusively Islamists. Just like the warlords, they wretchedly failed to resolve their differences in a civil manner, which would have given them a golden opportunity to demonstrate that Islam indeed can help solve contemporary political conflicts, economic crises, and social ills.

Missed opportunity: Many observers on Somali affairs believed that the selection of Sh. Sharif, a man widely respected in Somalia and was once the head of Union of the Islamic Courts who restored peace to Mogadishu in 2006, created a unique opportunity for Somali state rebuilding for two main reasons. Firstly, neither the international community nor the neighboring countries seemed to be noticeably alarmed by Sh. Sharif’s ascendance to power. Secondly, population was tired of wars and conflict and overwhelmingly supportive of an Islamist administration, as was the case in 2006 when Islamic Courts Unions first emerged as a dominant power after defeating fearsome warlords. Such analysis proved to be wrong chiefly because of lack of (or insufficient) understanding about the composition of Islamists under Islamic Courts Union (ICU) umbrella. It is a well-known fact that, with the exception of few individuals on the leadership with global Jihad agenda, the critical masses of Al-Shabaab are Salafi ideology.

Unabated bloodshed: It's important however, to focus on what you need rather than rehashing historical events. The most immediate need at this time is to bring to an end to the bloodshed by convincing armed groups to bring their grievances to the negotiating table. But this may be a wishful thinking given the fact that it is against Al-Shabab’s strong-held creed to reconcile anyone who does not conform to their ideology or global agenda. If it weren’t for the AMISOM troops, Al-Shabab would have dislodged the TFG from the few blocks it controls in Mogadishu. Although Somali conflict does not follow a predictable cycle, it seems more than likely that the entire southern Somalia will be under full control of Al-Shabab, except small areas controlled by the TFG. If this happens, what was largely considered as Somali conflict during past 20 years becomes an even greater regional security challenge as illustrated by the latest twin bombings in Kampala, Uganda. The recent promise of an additional 2,000 troops can’t bring any solution and would only mean more fighting and the bloodshed would continue.

Not all gloomy: From the above picture, one might get the impression that there’s no one part of Somalia that’s safe. Fortunately, this is not the case. Somaliland, for example, has achieved a level of security and stability unparalleled in the rest of southern Somalia. The political maturity in Somaliland, as corroborated by the latest elections, markedly contrasts with the sad situation in large parts of Somalia where we still see contemptible horrors of human tragedies. The tranquil and peaceful atmosphere in which Somaliland elections were held and Mr. Dahir R. Kahin (the outgoing president) coming to terms with this grievous loss should be recorded in the footnote of history books as a momentous achievement in an otherwise dark situation. Peace, however fragile it might be, is working effectively in Somaliland largely because it was formulated locally and, hence, people believe they own it. These conflict resolution skills and talents are desperately needed with regard to successful reconciliation for the rest of Somalia, where the apparent failure of the latest peace initiative in Djibouti has created only deadlier conflict, this time in the name of Islam.

Mr. Dahir R. Kahin did what African leaders are not known to have done; he graciously accepted the outcome of the democratic process by which he himself came to power in 2003. His administration not only kept the peace, but also nourished harmonious co-existence of different communities with competing tribal interests. We should expect that the President-elect, Mr. Ahmed Silanyo upcoming administration will keep the peace unharmed.

Verdict of 50 years review: Like other developing nations, demographically Somalia is classified as a young nation; approximately 60% of the population is under 25 years of age. If you try to put this statistic in proper perspective, and assuming the most conservative estimate that puts our population at 8 million is correct, you will find that about 5 million Somalis living today were school age (6 year old) when Somali state finally collapsed. In other words, anarchic condition may be the norm rather than exception for these 5 million young men and women. And we cannot blame them for they did not have the opportunity to grow in a normal life where there is law and order. If I try to say a little bit about myself within the perspective of 50^th anniversary; I was born few years after independence, started school soon after the military regime came to power, and graduated from college (Agraria for those of you who can read Italian) just before the collapse of Somalia as Nation. What a history just..just..just! Like the majority of Somalis living today, I consider myself to be among the luckiest; I was not subjected to colonial cruelty. Yet, the only thing I can be proud of while discussing with my colleagues at work and international meetings is that not all Somalia is as dangerous and violent as often depicted by international media outlets. Is that good enough for a nation that is marking her 50^th anniversary? While acknowledging the patent variability in the situation of what was known as Somali Republic, collectively as a nation, we have nothing to celebrate. One can easily dismiss this unkind verdict, which I do not like either, as overly pessimistic. But I would happily like to see someone convincing me otherwise.

Let us hope that we shall get out of our mess sooner than later, so the next generation will have something positive to celebrate in the second 50^th anniversary.