By Ali Osman
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Most Somalis, me included had high hopes for the current transitional government. We placed our hopes for the simple reason that the current president was someone decent and cared about the country and the people. It is now clear that the president was inexperienced and is now associated and is in bed with the worst and most corrupt leaders. The president made his trusted advisers people who are uneducated, corrupt and even includes a former narcotics “Qat” dealers. The prime minister’s government is riddled with infighting, corruption, and they have no more ambition or will to lead. The corruption has reached a point where presidential guards, shamefully fighting over left-over food in the presidential villa the eve of the Independence Day celebration. It took foreign journalists to separate the fighting soldiers over the left-over food. Leadership that fails to feed own guards cannot be expected to restore peace and hope to war a ravaged country.
The Western (US and Europe) current strategy and continuation of this strategy to keep the TFG in a life-support is unsustainable and morally and strategically wrong. It is high time that the United States and Europeans re-evaluate their support for corrupt, ineffective TFG.
The fear of the Western nations that if the current TFG is not supported by all means necessary a dangerous Taliban like Al-Shabab would take over Somalia is based in a flawed and wrong premise. As we will show this strategy stems from the following two main fears.
Fear #1 (The fear of the unknown): It goes something like this - Somalia could one day become a Taliban State where evil plots may be planned and carried out inside the United States and European capitals. September 11 is used as a guiding principle and what would happen if not tackled dangers before they materialize the “Bush’s preemptive doctrine”. Fear #2 (Self Interest): It is a fear generated by historically Western friendly organizations such as United Nations, Non Governmental Organizations and neighboring countries like Ethiopia and Kenya. In the case of the UN and NGO’s it goes like this: I would lose a lucrative job, lucrative title, and lucrative contract if Somali becomes a self sufficient republic that stands on its feet. In the case of the neighboring countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda it goes something like this: The US has recognized my government as important geopolitical friend, we are fighting US war on terror, we can ask all kinds of favors such as money, equipment, aid, and ask them to look the other way when it comes to human right violations and not to mention diverting US aid money and ammunitions in suppressing the democratic ambitions of their own citizens.
I would argue that these fears are contrary to the facts and history and thus strategically and morally wrong. To keep an entire nation and their children hostage and cause the worst humanitarian catastrophes of the recent memory for plausible fears that are due to wrong information and manufactured propaganda is morally reprehensible.
The first fear is due to luck of knowledge of the Somali culture. Anyone who studied Somalia will tell you, Somalia is not Afghanistan and Somalis are not Afghanis. True, both societies are tribal societies but comparing tribalism in Somalia and tribalism in Afghanistan is tantamount to equating elections in United States to that of North Korea. Somalia has not functioning government since 1990, that is more than 21 years and in that period by Western intelligence estimates there are around 200 or less foreign hardcore Al-Qaeda affiliated terrorist sympathizers inside Somalia.
The regions of Somalia where single foreign soldier is present such as Northern Somalia (Somali Land and Punt Land) there are no traces of Al-Qaeda or terrorism. In fact, Somali Land had just finished a civil and peaceful election which Western observers declared fair and transparent election. Similarly, the elections in Punt Land are held every few years and it goes well and smooth. Terrorists are not over running these states where no single UN or US soldiers are present so why would we assume; the south would be overrun by terrorists! It is just a manufactured propaganda by those who have an ax-to-grind. Another glaring fact that no one mentions is in those 21 years, no single terrorist attack was carried by Somali terrorists outside Somali borders. We may rightfully ask, if one terrorist act was not carried out by Al-Shabab against next door Ethiopia which they control all the Somali bordering regions with Ethiopia, why would we assume they would carry-out against United States tens of thousands miles away!
What this shows to any inquiring mind is Somalia is the most inhospitable land for the Al-Qaeda ideology. I would argue Somalia is more inhospitable to Al-Qaeda and foreign Jihadist organizations than New York City. If Somalia is left alone without intervention from the United States and European Union countries we would see a viable government emerge within 6 months or less. We would see a free and fair election or council elections by less than 2 years.
Leaving Somalia and Somalis to their own devices will do well for Somalia. The millions of displaced refugees will go back home, the misery of Somalia will end as we know it. Somalis will work out a way out of their civil war. The same way Rwanda found a way out of their genocidal civil war. The extremists would very soon find out, that they are just as they always are in the fringe of society and have no place in open and transparent societies like Somalia. The Somali people through tribal or religion will come into consensus and will establish a working and functioning government that does not need a feeding-tube from the United States or European Union. Ironically, leaving Somalia and Somalis to their own devices would create the sort of government that the Western world can deal with. Now, due to their own ignorance and misleading information fed into them, they are creating their worst fears. The Somali enlightened voices are silenced because they are supporting the most corrupt and failed administration that can possible be. They are inadvertently giving voice to the voiceless terrorists and taking away the legitimacy from the true leaders capable of wrestling the power from the extremists.
The second fear is created by two groups (UN, NGOs and Neighboring countries) The UN and NGO organizations have self-serving interest in seeing the misery of Somalia perpetuate. Here is why. A contractor working for these organizations makes more money in three months than they would make in a year. That is, if the contractor is honest and is not tempted by corrupt officials and business people. If the UN or NGO official is corrupt which many are, they can easily clear $350,000 or more within 3 months or less. Let me ask you this, who would not want this job to continue on and on? Only few honest people are and those are not showing up in Somali shores.
The third group is countries like Kenya and Ethiopia who are urging the United States and Europeans to continue supporting the Somali transitional government. They have their own “unknown fears” stemming from geopolitical interest and they don’t want to commit their own resources. So, they are playing safe by employing US, UN and European resources. They are telling the Western leaders if you leave here, there will be Taliban and this will destabilize the whole region. Off course they are not going to mention why Somali northern regions are not Taliban States given their luck of UNISOM military presence!
The western world tried their best in supporting Somalia and by all estimates it failed miserably. Let them do the right thing. Leave Somalia alone. Demobilize the Ugandan dominated UN military in Mogadishu and let them leave in orderly fashion. Within few hours TFG would fall and someone capable ensuring the security and order would ascend to power. That power would not be a genuine and legitimate power that we can all deal with.
By Ali Osman
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