Hiiraan Online

By Abdirahman Waberi
Saturday, August 20, 2011

The creation of a stable and secure Somalia state is a crucial element of long-term regional peace and sustainable campaign against terrorism and piracy. To successfully achieve that would cost the world a fraction of otherwise the petrifying Somalia of just last decade in both human-life and monetary terms, all experts agree to this…. yet skeptical, whether any of the powerful nations would take the leadership to do something. “How could the international community be so quick to respond to the humanitarian tragedy, yet so impotent when it comes to preventing it? It is not that simple though.

Upcoming challenge in rebuilding Somalia comes down to methodology. The traditional working assumption of donors, in post-conflict environments is that peace-building must precede development. They focus on political reconstruction, affiliations, participations and the organization of early elections. The University of Harvard study makes the case that economic development is complementary to the political and security elements of peace-building, and so measures to promote economic development must begin as soon as there is even a prospect of peace.  Study farther argues that donor countries must also pay attention to rebuilding the institutional infrastructure, in effect enhancing the capacity of countries to helping themselves.

Rebuilding failed states like Somalia is politically and economically costly and fraught with unforeseen perils. The lesson to be learned from previous attempts at nation building is not that all such efforts should be avoided, but that they must be multilateral, well-funded and subject to strong and focused leadership – either from the United States or an equally capable ally coupled with a competent and skillful Mogadishu leadership. Less then such a commitment to reverse this modern-day manmade calamity would be mediocre and doom to fail. While the United Nations may provide legal and political authority for post-conflict to regime- building, it has proven ineffective at the actual task of reconstituting failed states and rebuilding destroyed economies. Somalia is one of its dismal paradigms during UNOSOM in the early nineties.

Scholars cannot agree on how to define a failed state, but most concur that state failure is one of the world's gravest challenges. The definition they generally agree on is “States that have lost control over most of their territory and stopped providing even the most basic services to their people”. Only Somalia unambiguously fits this definition. Others, having recently failed, appear to be recovering: Afghanistan, Haiti, Sierra Leone and Liberia all fall into this category. It is tough to mend a failed state, but the fact that some formerly failed states are now doing very quite well—eg, Mozambique, Rwanda and East Timor—shows not only that it is possible but failed states can even be reversed into prosperous ones.

For the United States and its allies, just as the provision of humanitarian assistance is a crucial complement to that so far successful proxy military campaign, the United States will not successfully dislodge the Alshabaab militants and others unless a pragmatic approach is immediately put in place. An unprecedented economic initiative in Somalia should be the key to stabilization. Regardless of its intent, the United States will find itself embroiled in the domestic political dynamics of a post-conflict Somalia. In order to avoid past mistakes, the United States must be ready with a cohesive strategy with its allies through a responsible, competent and reformist TFG leadership by;

1-      Helping influence the TFG leadership (precisely the two Sherifs) to recede peacefully and replace them with more educated, competent and serious leadership (from their respective clans of-coarse). This move would expedite a nationwide recovery through the current multilateral humanitarian assistance, the African forces on the ground and huge support from civil societies . Forget about appeasing Islamist elements in government. It didn’t work in the first place when Shiek Sharif Sh. Ahmed was brought on board at that Djibouti conference, a move that even to no avail doubled the number of parliament then. Other means did work to defeat the Alshabaab including infiltrations, disruptions of funds and supplies and later tactical military use.

A well educated PM (Mr. Abdiweli Ali) so far an effective and hardworking leader should be complimented with another two like him at the top. The African forces on the ground could be leveraged for local power struggle during the upcoming September conference, just incase. Both Sherifs will quietly disappear into Parliament just like the old warlords. It may be an opportune time!

2-      Helping the TFG to be held in higher standards especially in its conduct on corruption and accountability. Goals must be set for its leaders to construct initiatives that lead to empowering new Somali institutions to take the leading role in the development and reconstruction of the country. Leaving Somalia’s fate to the "unsavory mix of greedy, malicious and corrupt characters" who predominantly make up the present and the past transitional governments power-brokers (including former warlords) would be devastating and thus gloomy results could be predictable.

When the world gave up on Somalia in the early nineties, it paved the way for a failed state that provided fertile ground for the growth of the largest and most potent Islamist terror organization in Africa “the Alshabaab”.  While the horn region is dominated by unstable clan based Administrations, with fragile political systems, widespread poverty and weak institutions inadvertently accommodate Islamist underground cells and businesses that provide those cells jobs and protection.

Conducting development in this kinetic environment is complex and daunting. Given their education, experience and morale leadership, it is improbable or even impossible if the two Sherifs with the backing of Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni and all the International support are capable of the leadership and the wisdom necessary to lay the groundwork for what it takes to lift this nation from the abyss; i.e, Demobilization and disarming, Justice system that runs an effective police force, institutional capacity, urgent fiscal health through accountability,  and set coordinated policies on what conditions should donors apply to their aid.

I have no personal quarrel with either Sherif but it’s every Somali’s duty to call spade a spade. For God’s sake Sherif Hasan (the speaker of parliament) not only that he never been to school, but he is even popular for being skillful in cutting corrupt deals. They call him “Sharif Sakiin” (Sharif the blade) for being ruthless when it comes to dealing with dirty money. The president, Sharif Ahmed is a product of the Islamic Madrasa and later run one of them, until he found himself mingled with the Islamic courts and Alshabaab (Alqaida affiliated group) that he had no idea who he was sleeping with until Ethiopian tanks woke him up in Mogadishu (how naive can one be?). Having three wives (some say four), the first paying job he ever held is his current office “The president”. He may be a good man, but he just can’t handle the task ahead.

The Perils of a War-Economy: - The businesses that thrived amid the anarchy and the corruption of stateless Somalia were of a depressing sort: emergency aid, arms-dealing, disaster journalism and security-ringed extractive industries for whom development was too often someone else's problem. Roads were destroyed, public utilities ceased functioning. 21 years of on-again, off-again wars tear the country’s infrastructure to shreds; Somalia’s middle-class dismantled or immigrated to elsewhere.  A generation lost;

A generation of young people, many of whom never received a formal education, many were psychologically traumatized by a brutal and at-times bizarre wars of different rivals roam the streets of Southern Somalia towns. Unemployment remains alarmingly high. Yet, an incursion of faith (Wahabi) based humanitarian aid poured from the Gulf States for many years, that focused nothing but opening up of Madrasa schools and overwhelming number of mosques for already devoted Muslims whom their Islamic faith was as strong as ever with already enough mosques and madrasas. Some believe intent was not humanitarian aid but cultural transformation (Saudization) of some sort. In either case the Islamist terror networks later found a recruiting goldmine in these organized fundamentalists’ camps. Conventional public schooling and public education institutions were not existent for 21 years.

Private Sector boom:- The vibrant Somalia business community has successfully developed new markets from the ruins of civil war, in the context of a severely limited government presence and regulation. Private entities have further moved in to providing basic infrastructure and institutions. Electricity and telephones have been offered to towns that never benefited from those services in the prior regime where government regulated the economy. Yet, lack of regulatory and institutional services take its toll on growth and hinder foreign investment to venture with local entities. Clandestine investors and concealed owners are involved in some of the biggest enterprises in the region.

The legal system as far as commercial matters are concerned is either fully dysfunctional or riddled by delays and corruption. The lack of commercial laws or their application (contracts, company laws, lending, foreign investment laws, etc) greatly limits the growth of the private sector. For example, there is no concept of limited liability. Book-keeping and accounting procedures are rarely used, even by large enterprises. Partnerships tend to be short-lived as a result of unresolved disputes. On the other hand the individual or family businesses have a high rate of insolvency, due to lack of risk-sharing.

The Prospects: -,

With rich resources and a history of exporting, economic recovery should not be about restoring pre-war economic or institutional arrangements.  It should be about transformation — requiring a mix of far-reaching economic, institutional, legal, and policy reforms that allow Somalia to re-establish the foundations for self-sustaining development as fast as possible. So “a return to traditional development activities should not be even desirable”. Rehabilitation and recovery of educational institutions should be a priority alongside extensive deregulation of religious schools. Charity run institutions of all religions should be investigated. 

Donors need to enhance the absorptive capacity of Somali economy, by training personnel whose managerial and technical skills will be needed. An effort should be made to encourage skilled emigrants to return, and to dissuade talent from leaving. Meanwhile transportation systems need to be made save and functional as early as possible. Functioning judicial system should be first institution to attend to for many reasons, including settling land disputes. During the country’s 21-year of chaos, many Somalis fled the country. Many people expect to return home, and most would find other people living on their land. Overall, aid should focus on building viable government institutions. Lack of it will undo all that is to be done. Hail to the Turkish PM Mr. Erdogan and his wife for their bravery and generosity.