by Abdihakim Aynte
Friday, October 21, 2011
The recent heinous attack in Mogadishu that claimed more than 70 innocent lives, mostly students queuing up for scholarship to Turkey demonstrates two facts: (a) al-Shabab's ability to carry out as many cowardice suicide attacks on the civilians as they wish (b); the government's inability to avert such attacks.
Yet the Somali government (TFG) is offering no alternatives other than wait the next attack. Both facts are disturbing. Despite recent setbacks, al-Shabab remains, whether we like or not, a potent force that controls a large swath of territory in south and central Somalia. A catastrophic famine of biblical proportions is wrecking havoc in the al-Shabab-controlled regions, and the group barred charity agencies to operate there, deepening the crisis.
To save the hundreds of thousands of people at risk of starvation, the humanitarian assistance agencies have collectively urged the TFG and the international community to open a dialogue with al-Shabab, to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
The famine and the suicide attack in Mogadishu put the question of dialogue with al-Shabab into a sharp focus. For years, the TFG and its African Union backers have been emphasizing on the military approach to try and stamp out al-Shabab. In recent months, they have registered some success in that approach. But by and large, al-Shabab continues to pose an existential threat to the TFG.
In parallel with the military strategy, the TFG must give peace talks a chance. Make no mistake, such talks wouldn’t be easy; they would be replete with twists and turns, and positive outcome could be illusive for sometime. But without trying, the TFG would be undercutting itself.
Realistic dialogue
The prolonged Somali conflict must eventually end through dialogue and reconciliation process among the Somalis, and that should include the insurgents. And not all insurgents would be open to dialogue. The moderate voices of the insurgents should be appealed to.
Al-shabab is not a monolithic entity, after all. In fact, they are made up of several camps, all with their own views, nationalist and global Jihadists and consequently with their own views on negotiations and peace agreements.
Then, there is small – but quite powerful – global Jihadist inspired hard-core contingent whose vision for Somalia, among other things, is to become a launching pad for terrorist activity and keep Somalia in anarchy for their own benefit and safety.
There can be no accommodation room for this camp.
In the past, the competing interests vested in Somalia by the international players have hampered credible negotiations with al-Shabab. Such parochial policies must not continue. For its credit, the government has repeatedly attempted – publicly and privately – to talk with the insurgents but, unfortunately, it has never materialized for a number of reasons. First of all, the TFG has never articulated its negotiation strategy. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, a governmental body to spearhead the reconciliation process was never set-up.
The government needs to address these issues and specifically articulate its strategies for national dialogue. Studies have shown that the best way to counter insurgent groups like al-Shabab, is through serious engagement.
For its part, international community should abandon its narrow focus on fighting terrorism to a broader approach of reconciliation and diplomatic engagement by strengthening the government institutions, providing resources and support for the national reconciliation project.
Abdihakim Aynte
E-mail: [email protected]