October 23, 2006
By Andrew Cawthorne
Having taken a swathe of south Somalia in June, the Islamists accuse Ethiopia of sending troops across Somalia's border, have declared jihad against Addis Ababa, and are now threatening to execute two Ethiopians they accuse of spying.
For its part, the Ethiopian government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi calls the Islamist leaders terrorists, admits sending military trainers to help the interim Somali government, and has warned it will "crush" any Islamist incursion.
The mutually bellicose postures and the build-up of military forces on both sides have raised the spectre of yet another devastating conflict in the Horn of Africa.
"We can clean them out," 22-year-old Addis resident Sisay Assefa enthused. "Our air force is the second biggest in Africa. We can control Mogadishu in hours."
Nationalism runs strong in Ethiopia, where residents take pride in never having been colonised like other African states.
That and its centuries-old rivalry with Somalia N which has boiled over into war before N easily arouses the kind of excitement that can overwhelm the reluctance of Addis residents to speak to journalists on the street despite a pervasive state security apparatus.
"Of course we are worried about war. Everyone is," said 25-year-old history student Salomon Berhea. "The Somalis are getting more and more powerful. They will attack Ethiopia, and Eritrea will attack on the other side."
Eritrea - Ethiopia's other arch-enemy in the region with whom it fought a border war in 1998-2000 - has been accused by the United Nations, United States and others of sending arms to the Islamists to spite Addis Ababa.
Ethiopia makes no secret of backing President Abdullahi Yusuf's interim Somali government, which has been isolated and rendered virtually powerless by this year's rise of the Islamists and their increasing territorial control.
"These people are fanatics, they are close to al Qaeda. They think if they kill a Christian, they will go to heaven," said tour guide Tewodrose, who gave only his first name.
"But if they kill these two Ethiopians they have arrested, there will be trouble ... Addis Ababa is the headquarters of the African Union, so we are the capital of continent. Ethiopia has to stand up for the peace of Africa."
Random chats with Ethiopians in cafes and streets round Addis Ababa's central Meskel Square found similarly militant anti-Islamist views among the majority - even those who oppose the Meles government.
But some, lowering their voices, had more cynical interpretations of why their nation, the world's seventh-poorest, appeared to be spoiling for another costly war.
"We all know the government is doing this for the Americans," said office worker Tadele. "We need their dollars, and they need us to do their dirty work."
While Washington has publicly exhorted both Ethiopia and Eritrea to show restraint and not turn Somalia into a proxy war, some analysts have said they believe Addis Ababa has tacit US support to restrain the Islamists' rise, by force if necessary.
Traditionally Christian Ethiopia is a key anti-terrorism ally for Washington, which fears Somalia under Islamist rule may become a haven for Islamist extremists.
But memories of the recent war with Eritrea, a 1977-78 conflict with Somalia, and the violent 1991 overthrow of former dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam, are still fresh here.
"The last thing we need is more war cripples and more diversion of money to military fronts that should be spent on milk and schools," said a female Ethiopian teacher, who asked not to be named. "I pray it doesn't come to that again."
Source: Reuters, Oct. 23, 2006