Saturday February 27, 2016
MOGADISHU (HOL) – The African Union force in Somalia continue to face complex challenges including the growing influence of Somalia’s neighboring states which had damaged the force’s reputation among Somalis, a new study by a Mogadishu based think tank said Friday.
The 22000-strong force is locked in a deadly insurgency by the Al-Qaeda linked Al Shabab group which is fighting to topple the
western-backed Somali government which is struggling to extend its rule across the country.
The new study by the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies said that the frontline states, especially Ethiopia and Kenya, have repeatedly
pursued counterproductive policies in Somalia that sought to retain their influence over local and national dynamics, including policies
that undermines the local perceptions of AMISOM as an impartial force and provide fuel for al-Shabab’s propaganda.
Analyzing chances of defeating militants, the study said that AU forces alone cannot defeat al-Shabaab without seeking partnership with a capable, legitimate and inclusive set of Somali security forces, with efforts to rebuild the once mighty Somali army are ongoing.
“These failings have not only further endangered AMISOM personnel, they have also undermined the mission’s effectiveness and the
prospects of stabilizing Somalia.” The study said.
Moreover, the study has recommended needs the force’s enhancement and reconfiguration to enable it to seriously degrade rather than simply displace al-Shabaab’s fighting capabilities, by severely restricting the militants’ ability to move throughout Somalia and separate al-Shabaab’s fighters from the local population.
Excerpting a recent remarks by the the AU’s Peace and Security Commissioner, Smail Chergui, who said that “AMISOM is not an occupation force in Somalia, HISP study said that as soon as the Federal Government signals it is ready to stand on its own because it can withstand a severely degraded or defeated Al Shabab, AMISOM would leave.
Mr. Chergui was speaking at a ceremony to commemorate Kenyan troops who were killed in al-Shabaab’s attack on AMISOM’s El-Ade base on 15 January 2016.
The force’s future pull out from Somalia remains a dominant debate among AMISOM and its international partners.
“it would be irresponsible of AMISOM to withdraw without leaving behind “a capable, legitimate and inclusive” set of Somali security forces.” The study warned.
The study has also said that a successful exit strategy for AMISOM would have to involve two interrelated transitions, including a transition from operations led by foreign forces to Somali-led operations; and, a transition from military-led operations to police-led operations.
“The second transition is arguably the most difficult, especially because AMISOM has only a small police component (of around 540) and the Somali police force remains in a dire State.” the study emphasized, pointing out that those goals remain a long way off.
However, In the interim, AMISOM’s critics are growing more vocal,albeit for a variety of differentreasons with the force has been criticized for failing to oust militants from areas still under Al Shabab’s control since it was deployed in 2007, something critics said allowed the once ‘dying’ Al Shabab to regroup and launch major attacks including three complex attacks that saw militants overrun AU military bases since last year.
Furthermore, the study has analyzed key challenges it said are preventing the AU force from achieving its mandated tasks, including Al Shabab’s ability to adapt to its new environment, Internal problems within AMISOM, obstacles to building an effective set of Somali national security forces, lack of a sustainable political settlement, clarifying the nature of federalism in Somalia, and the rise of negative local perception about the AMISOM.
“AMISOM’s operational effectiveness, if not its exit strategy, will hinge on how it deals with these challenges.” The HISP study said.