By: Eng. Jama Farah Noor
Tuesday April 14, 2026
An orchestrated election model by the incumbent leader will not only undermine democracy but also risk triggering severe violence, potentially pushing the country back toward civil war.
Unlike the ongoing orchestrated election model by the incumbent President and his team, which appears to serve narrow political interests while lacking essential stakeholder participation and democratic values, there is an urgent need for a credible and inclusive electoral process agreed upon by all stakeholders. This must be delivered through a genuinely free and fair election to achieve the desired future state of Somalia.
The desirable future state of Somalia is a peaceful, prosperous, and democratic nation. Achieving this requires a mutually agreed electoral process, a robust and shared strategic plan among all stakeholders, and a firm commitment to democratic values to realize this vision.
This can only be achieved by fully safeguarding the right of citizens to participate in decision-making through a genuinely inclusive process.
One Person, One Vote Goal
This remains the most desirable electoral model and is widely regarded as the most legitimate way to ensure every citizen can exercise their democratic rights through a free and fair election.
However, given the prolonged insecurity, the persistent threat posed by Al-Shabaab, and the absence of critical prerequisite conditions, it is currently not feasible to conduct a credible one person one vote election in Somalia.
To move toward this goal, several key prerequisites must be established. These include comprehensive voter registration, issuance of voter identification cards, clear constituency demarcation, determination of the number of MPs, and agreement on the electoral model.
In addition, security must be guaranteed to allow citizens to vote without fear. Civic education is equally essential to strengthen public understanding of democratic processes and increase voter participation.
As the government has not made sufficient efforts to establish these prerequisite conditions, the most viable option is to revert to the previous election model involving the 135 traditional leaders, who remain among the few actors that retain public trust.
Undemocratic Decisions
The recent steps and action plans set up by the government to meet these goals are not only misaligned with democratic values but also do not stem from a clear national vision for Somalia. This appears to be due to a vision held by the incumbent President and his team, focused on securing re-election and extending their time in power.
Furthermore, the unilateral appointment of the electoral commission by the President marks the first step toward achieving his own vision.
Mobilization of the Somali National Army to oppress stakeholders, including leaders from Federal Member States, raises serious constitutional and governance concerns, reflects a coercive political approach, and constitutes a violation of the constitution and a tyrannical political culture.
The continued use of state security institutions, including NISA, to influence or suppress differing views on the electoral process further weakens democratic space. These actions are inconsistent with democratic values and undermine the integrity of the electoral process. They are also key drivers of potential post-election conflict and instability.
As a result of this, widespread conflict and military intervention will prevail across Federal Member States. Such inconsistent decisions must be deterred by ensuring that all decision-making processes are inclusive, along with the development of a shared strategy and plan stemming from the true desirable state of Somalia rather than a narrow group vision. All decisions must also be based on democratic values, the rule of law, and good governance.
Recommended Points
Democratic values are essential for achieving a peaceful and inclusive electoral process that leads to a legitimate and stable transition of power. They require meaningful consultation with all stakeholders on the electoral model, procedures, and regulations, ensuring that every citizen has the right to participate in the election processes.
The first and most critical phase of any election process is reaching consensus among stakeholders on the electoral framework, rules, and procedures. Without this foundation, the legitimacy of subsequent stages is compromised.
However, there are concerns that the current process has limited inclusive participation at this crucial stage, proceeding instead toward implementation phases such as election management, monitoring, and vote verification without sufficient consensus.
An institution built on a bayonet will not take root, but institutions built on democratic values will endure and last longer, provided such values are upheld collectively. The current Federal Government must focus on democratic values rather than unilateral decisions.
Accountability Systems and a Credible Judiciary
The current government has left a major institutional gap by never establishing a Supreme Court to resolve election disputes and instead relying on military forces to impose its own undemocratic decisions on stakeholders. As a result, the outcome of the election will not be accepted, and post-election conflict and violence are inevitable.
To ensure a credible electoral process, robust mechanisms must be established to monitor, evaluate, and verify election outcomes. Strong accountability systems are essential, and an independent judiciary particularly a fully functioning Supreme Court must be in place to adjudicate electoral disputes impartially.
Furthermore, there is an urgent need to establish a competent, credible, and independent judicial structure through a transparent process agreed upon by all stakeholders and supported by the international community.
The future of Somalia is not predetermined; it is shaped by the choices we make today. The path forward must be grounded in inclusivity, the establishment of credible institutions, ensuring accountability, and protecting democratic values. As Nelson Mandela once said, ‘It is in your hands to create a better world for all who live in it.’ Let us choose a path that ensures stability, justice, and dignity for every citizen.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Hiiraan Online’s editorial stance.
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By: Eng. Jama Farah Noor
Former Head of Banadir Region Building Regulations Office.
Former Senior Advisor to the Deputy Mayor of Mogadishu Municipality.
Former Senior Policy & Planning Advisor, Ministry of Youth & Sports FGS.
