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Coalition of Opposites and Their Fixation with False Dichotomies: Analysis of Political Opportunism in Somali Region of Ethiopia

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By Khadar M Leyli
Monday May 4, 2026

Coalition of Opposites and Their Fixation with False Dichotomies: Analysis of Political Opportunism in Somali Region of Ethiopia

Symbiotic Antagonists 

In a predictable display of political opportunism, a coalition of bitter rivals has united not around a shared vision for Ethiopia’s future and Somali Region’s position within it, but around a shared fixation on smear against Somali Regional State President Mustafa Omer. 

The opportunism of these symbiotic antagonists — comprising TPLF loyalists still nursing wounds from their military defeat, remnants of the repressive Abdi Iley regime, and a disgruntled faction of the ONLF diaspora — proves that old enemies gladly embrace one another when the target is a leader they see as an obstacle to their political designs. 

Their weapon of choice is not policy or evidence, but the tired, recycled accusation that President Mustafa Omer speaks with "different messages for different audiences." In truth, this charge reveals far more about their own intellectual bankruptcy, linear thought, and extremism than about any inconsistency on his part.

The False Dichotomy

The coalition’s core argument rests on a  fallacy so apparent that it should not have deserved serious rebuttal. They insist that a leader cannot simultaneously advocate for the unity of the Somali Region’s people in Jigjiga and the unity of all Ethiopians in Addis Ababa. This is a false dichotomy of the highest order,  a deliberate attempt to manufacture contradiction where none exists. 

Since when does working for regional solidarity preclude working for national cohesion? Since when does a leader who champions the rights and dignity of his own ethnic group automatically betray the broader national project? 

The very premise is absurd, yet the coalition clings to it because they hate Mustafa continues to enjoy the support of diverse audiences, precisely because he is loyal to dual political visions, i.e, a united Somali Region and a united Ethiopia, that are complementary, and in no way contradictory to each other. 

The Coalition’s Real Agenda

If the positions of the President that won him strong support both within his Somali base and the wider Ethiopian political community is so clear, why do these strange bedfellows invest so much energy in peddling false dilemmas and dichotomies?

Firstly, the coalition of opposites cannot attack Mustafa Omer’s tangible achievements in security, development, human rights, freedom of speech, leadership cohesion, and public trust. So, they invent a schizophrenic caricature of a person that exists only in their own desperate imagination. The inspiration comes from Gobbles’s propaganda toolkit: repeat the same lie over and over again, and someone will take it as the truth! 

Secondly, they are frustrated that Mustafa is not taking either extreme of the political fault lines that only exist in their figment of imagination: Somali Vs Ethiopian; when in fact, one can be both Somali and Ethiopian. They wanted him to either run away from his Somali roots and history, so they can find a way of isolating him from the people he rules; or to embrace a narrow Somali nationalism in the guise of “ethnic rights” and reject the much needed civic nationalism and inter-ethnic harmony that must be the foundation of state and nation-building in modern Ethiopia. Here also, they wanted to use that situation to fan the kind of absurd disinformation about “Alshababa links” and “Greater Somalia” aspiration that they are hysterically peddling, particularly on the eve of the 7th National Elections. 

Thirdly, because their own legitimacy depends on keeping old wounds open. TPLF loyalists want Ethiopia weak and fractured; Abdi Iley remnants dream of returning to their predatory, clan-based rule; the ONLF diaspora faction prefers romanticized insurgency over accountable governance. 

President Mustafa’s vision

Mustafa has been more than clear about his vision for Somali Region and for Ethiopia. He stated that there is no contradiction between the people of Somali Region’s ethnicity and nationality (citizenship) from the first days he assumed the responsibility of leading the Somali Region in August 2018. He stated that he believes in federalism but rejects the hateful and divisive politics that TPLF used as a strategy to cling to power. 

He has always said the rights of ethnic groups in Ethiopia must be respected but national unity and harmony among constituent members of the Federation must be given equal emphasis. 

He has consistently decried past marginalization and persecution of Somalis by previous regimes. He has stressed the need for justice and redress for past violations. Yet, he has also been clear that no people should remain prisoners of their past and urged Somalis in Ethiopia to look forward and seek their rights within an inclusive, democratic, and Federal State: “From sulking on the periphery to claiming the center” being his often repeated mantra! 

He has consistently advanced a vision of dual loyalty; to the Somali people who elected him and to the Ethiopian federal project that guarantees their place within a diverse nation. 

In Jigjiga, he has worked to heal the wounds left by Abdi Iley’s brutal rule, bringing together clans that were deliberately set against one another. In Addis Ababa, he has been a vocal advocate for federalism, ethnic equality, and cooperative governance. These are not contradictory positions; they are complementary pillars of a coherent political philosophy. 

A leader who cannot unite his own regional constituency has no credibility in national politics, and a leader who ignores national frameworks cannot deliver lasting benefits to his region. Mustafa Omer understands this synergy. 

The coalition of opposites and their TPLF sponsors, by contrast, thrive on clan division, regionalism without patriotism, grievance without solution.

For each of these groups, a Somali Region that is both internally united and genuinely integrated into Ethiopia represents an existential threat. They cannot defeat Mustafa Omer on the ground, so they resort to rhetorical tricks, manufacturing paradoxes where none exist, hoping that enough repetition will lend their accusations an air of credibility. 

The Futility of False Choices

The attempt to force President Mustafa Omer into an either/or box; either for Jigjiga or for Addis Ababa, but never both, is a political dinosaur from an era that has rightly ended. Ethiopia’s future belongs to leaders who understand that regional strength and national unity are not opposing forces but mutual reinforcements. 

The coalition of opposites may continue to chase phantom contradictions, but their fixation will produce nothing except their own irrelevance. The people of Somali Region in particular and Ethiopia in general see the coalition for what it is: a desperate gathering of political losers united only by their inability to accept a new reality.

As the Somali Region moves forward under capable leadership, and as Ethiopia consolidates its federal democracy, the old guard’s false dichotomies will be remembered as little more than footnotes; a last gasp of a politics that preferred division to development, and rhetoric to results. 

President Mustafa Omer stands on the right side of history, not despite his dual message of unity, but precisely because of it.

Khadar M Leyli is a political commentator based in Jigjiga, Somali Regional State of Ethiopia. He can be reached at [email protected].

The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect Hiiraan Online’s editorial stance.