Hiiraan Online

Dr. Ali S. Faqi
Wednesday, December 22, 2010

• A hopeless parliament: Most parliamentary sessions or debates end up being about processes, and procedures involving motions to support or unseat the government. In other words parliamentarians are not concerned about the pressing issues facing the country. This unnecessary fight for power has hindered the government’s plan to stabilize the country. Members of the parliament do not appear to distinguish between what is a priority and what is not since they are not held accountable for anything they do. Moreover, the lack of vision and leadership coupled together with callous attitude of the parliamentarians turned the current parliament a hopeless institution.

• A weak government: The transitional federal government (TFG) and AMISOM forces control less that 40% of Mogadishu with the rest of the country under Al-Shabab who is strong, organized, disciplined and more determined than the TFG.   Although the TFG have trained thousands of former militiamen to serve as the national army; however, corruption and clan loyalty have limited the building of any viable national army.   In Mogadishu, the public is caught between the artilleries of AMISOM and the TFG forces on one side and Alshabab forces on the other side and is faced with a choice between a rock and a hard place.

• Proxy war: The Ethiopian-Eritrean proxy war in Somalia is a major setback for peace and stability in the country. The internal destabilizing forces in Somalia have always served as tools for external forces to meddle into the Somali affairs. The president of Eritrea and the prime minister of Ethiopia are engaged in removing each other from the power and have carried their dispute to Somalia. Ethiopia portrays Eritrea as a country that harbors terrorist organizations and was diplomatically successful to convince the west that Eritrea braces the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda because of its military support to Alshabab, a group that has openly declared to belong to Al-Qaeda. This has allowed the prime minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi to cash on the war on terror and actively engage in the Somali conflict continuously training and arming new factions every time. Similarly, the politically isolated Isaias Afewerki is fully busy in training and arming Ethiopian opposition groups’ as well as supplying arm shipments to Alshabab.

• Piracy: The absence of a central authority has created a favorable environment for criminals to flourish in Somalia. There is no doubt that the pirate business is growing and prospering in Somalia as a clear sign that the international mafia is fully involved. With millions of dollars going in the hands of pirates as a ransom; pirates will undermine the power of any authority and drag the Somali quandary into the garbage.

• Regional states: The formation of regional states without the consultation of stakeholders has become the new political dynamics. News media reported of ceremonies held in Kenya and elsewhere in relation to the formation of new regional states; as expected there are two or more individuals in each state claiming to be the legitimate president.  There is no doubt this new absurdity will be the beginning of the next evolution of the Somali madness.  The biggest fear is that in few years from now, Somalia will be divided into 8-10 chaotic regional states in conflict with each other for various obvious reasons including controversies over the presidency, clan ownership of land, border and land disputes and at the same time undermining the authority of the central government. This balkanization will also erode the very essence of Somali citizenship allegiance and create a new clan-identity based citizenship. 
   
• Post-August 2011: The post August 2011, when the current TFG term expires is another issue for concern.  Instead of looking for real solutions, Somali groups appear to be widely divided and political ambition is overshadowing any future hopes.   It is looks though the politicians have bought the idea that the Somali solution has to come from outside as the question of safety in Mogadishu does not cross in the minds of those who are preparing themselves to run for an office.

• Summary: Overall, the country is facing dangers of great magnitude, from piracy, human displacement of great proportion, desertification and radicals with foreign patrons leading the conflict and a leadership group determined to profit from the misery.

Considering these factors altogether, the likelihood Somalia re-emerging from the current mayhem is quite remote unless we embark on a new paradigm shift.

Here are some concrete proposals that might help expedite the reestablishment of Somalia as a nation:

1. The TFG should open talks with legitimate opposition groups under the premises that war is no a solution. The TFG does not have the resources, military might and support to take over the entire country. The choice is very clear; it is either change the direction, or keep the country in its contemporary state of lawlessness. Logistically AMISOM forces should serve as peacekeepers, but never as peacemakers, and any attempt to change their mandate will be a failure. The dialogue between the TFG and opposition groups with the public support is the only way for a long lasting peace. 

2. The proxy war between Ethiopia and Eritrea must end. The TFG should convince the west and the UN that with Ethiopia’s paranoid on security and Eritrea’s obsession of getting rid of Meles; tens of thousands of Somali citizens have lost their lives. Somalia’s major interest should be living in peace with its neighboring countries and that should satisfy Ethiopia’s official concern. Nevertheless, Ethiopia will still continue to insist that it needs guarantee from any government in Mogadishu to stop opposition and radical groups waging war to its territory because this has been the modus operandi of Ethiopia for the past 2 decades.  An ideal solution to this problem is stationing multinational peacekeeping forces from Africa or the UN in the border between Somalia and Ethiopia.  This will stop the follow of arms from Ethiopia, temporarily fix the border security and provide enough time for both countries to workout a real peace deal.

3. Regarding the establishments of regional states; it should be noted that Somalia is not a peaceful country consequently a federal system will be hard to implement at this point in time. I understand that some groups within the TFG are trying to rush and force us into a new constitutional framework that contains and federalist clause, but this would have severe consequences in the future. There is a need of finding a middle ground that could lead to a win-win situation for the pro-and anti-federalist groups. A viable proposal could be focusing on prioritizing ways to rescue the country from its current situation and later moving forward with implementing whatever system the public chooses. Forcing a system of governance to an entire nation without its public participation is a recipe for disaster. Federalism is a system negotiated between warlords and as is cannot be implemented without the public education, participation and a final referendum.

4. Last and not the least Somalia must reconcile with itself. The ongoing regional football competition in Garowe is a positive step to the right direction and similar initiatives should be encouraged and supported.   Remember that sports have been used for centauries as a tool for development and peace.

In conclusion, the stabilization of Somalia could take short or long period depending on how the issues are prioritized, approached and handled. If we approach the issues under the motto “peace is priority” I am confident that positive developments can be achieved in a short period of time; otherwise, the question of Somalia re-emerging as a stable nation will be a difficult dream to materialize.