Hiiraan Online

President Sharif Ahmed of Somalia is in Addis Ababa Ethiopia to discuss according to VOA “the way forward in attaining a lasting solution for security and political problems that have plagued Somalia for decades.”

Meanwhile, his Prime Minister announced cabinet ministers of 40 including Prime Minister. This cabinet is larger than the cabinet of the largest democracy in the world India. That is right! The cabinet ministers of India are only 35! In case you forgot, India is more than 1.2 billion people and has 1.16 trillion dollars in Gross Domestic Product. While lawless Somalia is 9 million in population and has less than 900 million dollars in Gross Domestic Product! Apparently, Somalia needs more cabinet ministers than India does!

If this does not make your head spin, there is more jaw-dropping statistics about this tinny nation. The Somali president was elected in January of 2009. He is in office more than 18 months. His cornerstone promise to his nation on the eve of his election was: To (1) establish security, (2) restore basic services and (3) negotiating with the insurgents and (4) Ending corruption and establishing transparence in government institutions.

The government was immediately recognized by all the member countries of the United Nations. The government is recognized and supported by United States, European Union, Organization of African Union countries, the IGAD, The Arab League and Islamic countries.  The UN donor nations have pledged $213 million dollars to the transitional government and according to African Union's deputy head of mission to Somalia Mr. Wafula Wamunyinyi  “…the mission had received more than half the $213 million donors have pledged to help restore Somalia's security and public services” he further added “The pledges have been flowing until now, I am sure we have received most of the funds” see (Reuters). 

The United Nations funds African Union protection force of 5300 stationed in Mogadishu. The UN member countries trained so far 7500 military and police units and have delivered to the government. Many more units are in training in Uganda, Djibouti and in Kenya. The US state department has delivered over 80 tons of ammunition and advanced $1 million emergency cash to the government. The government’s accounting office has admitted to have collected in the last 18 months $20 million dollars from taxes and fees.

(1) Security:

With the overwhelming support in material and moral it receives, the government holds less than five square kilo meters of land. The government is besieged by insurgency.  The government can last by all conservative estimates less than two hours without the African Union protection force.  The government soldiers are not paid regularly and jump-ship everyday for salary payments issues. The ammunitions and weapons are sold to insurgents. Ammunitions and weapons destined for the Somali security forces and even the African Union protection force end up at the hands of the insurgence. In fact, the four ministers that were doing their job, the education minister, the higher education minister, the health care minister, the youth and sports minister were killed for luck of security and conspiracies are rampant that they have been killed because they went rogue by doing actual work and not sitting in a protected compound.

 (2) Restoring Basic Services:

The government has not built one single institution in education, healthy, security, roads or any other industry. The only credible service they have restored is renovating the old parliament building. That is it. The government ministers are not capable in running the offices they are being appointed. Their sole credentials are their tribal affiliation or their standing with the Prime Minister, the President, and Speaker of the Parliament or neighboring Ethiopia. The capable bureaucrats who could have run the organs of governments are simply not there and uninvited.

(3) Negotiation with Insurgents:

The government has not seriously engaged with any meaningful way to reach an agreement with the moderate Hisbul-Islam let alone Al-Shabab. The only progress on this front is the occasional statement of the president that “we will sit with who ever want to sit with us”. So far no one sat with him on this front. The president is in whirlwind tour in foreign capitals asking more aid. He is asking an aid that ends up in a bottomless pit with no single agenda of progress to show for.

(4) Ending corruption and bringing transparency:

Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index ranked Somalia the most corrupt nation on earth. The corruption has reached a level where government ministers are travelling for government business but in fact are smuggling people to foreign capitals. The people they are smuggling are not relatives but people they have charged an upward of $10,000 dollars or more. The Somali embassies are peddling and selling Somali passports to the highest bidder. The government ministers and officials are hiring their friends or relatives to critical areas or giving them contracts.  Corruption is institutionalized in a level where Non governmental organizations are signing to have given Somalia millions but in fact the money is divided between the NGO’s and the signing government official. No aid or benefit goes to the poor displaced millions stranded in outside the city while the paper trail shows, millions have been spent on their welfare.

The Insurgents

By all reliable estimates (New York Times and Wikipedia) the number of Al-Shabab and their supports are between 3000 – 5000 men.  There is no credible evidence that they receive much funding from overseas. Eritrea and Al- Qaeda has been mentioned as possible source of income but nothing credible have been substantiated.  There is no recognition and widespread population support within the country for Al-Shabab insurgents for obvious reasons such as their extreme repression, killing and assassinations. However with their meager means, they have consolidated their power in all central and southern Somalia.  They have restored complete security to all areas under their control. They have formed local governments run by the local people but have absolute control on all areas of security and nothing takes place without their tacit approval. So far, they have won every battle with the government when African Union soldiers are not engaged.  They are recruiting the youth in record numbers and they are expanding their reach.

What went wrong?

The problems of the current Transitional Federal Government are two folds:

(1)    Sovereignty: This government was created and recognized by the international community including historical nemesis of Somalia. Power and recognition was given by outside actors rather than earned from within. This government came about, when very popular Islamic courts were ousted by Ethiopia and the citizens were imposed on a new government which they had no social contract with. Therefore, the Transitional Federal Government is very well aware that its power stems from outside and not from within. The TFG knows these outside actors will keep them afloat by all means necessary and as such have no accountability or will to seek support, reconciliation and legitimacy from within.

(2)  Unconditional Support.  They are recognized, supported and financed by outside actors why would they busy themselves with building basic services like restoring security, or building institutions such as police, military, schools, and hospitals if there is no accountability? What incentive is there for them to pay the salary of their police or military when their compound is protected by 5300 African Union soldiers financed by UN and US? Why would they build schools when their children go private schools in Nairobi or United States? Why would they build a hospital they are airlifted by rented Cessna to Agha Khan Hospital in Nairobi?  The parliament is not elected by citizens and they cannot vote them out of office. Every four years, they go back to Nairobi and select one of their own as president and continue their usual business.

The Transitional Federal Government was provided every opportunity to squander without consequences. There are no checks and balances in place and there is no mechanism for accountability whatsoever.  They were told, you have our unwavering support without strings attached.  Rather, they should have been told: Show progress within short period of time or die.

(1)    Luck of Time Table: If the government and the parliament were told; you have specified period of time and if you fail, you will not be back in Somali politics, we will see results very quickly. They would immediately create well paid and financed army and police that are capable of restoring the security.  Money enough for security is following in and manpower is there but the will is not there. There is no accountability. The money appropriated to security institutions is ending up in foreign accounts.

(2)    Unearned Parliamentary Seats: The parliamentarians are handpicked by foreign actors and not elected or selected by the communities they represent. If they were true representative, they would have provided basic services like security, roads, hospitals and education.  They are not concerned about restoring service because their legitimacy and staying power is derived from UN, Ethiopia, Kenya, and US. These foreign chosen individuals called “parliamentarians” actually have no contract or connection with the citizens they claim to represent. If you want to know what representative parliament is, look no further than Somali Land, they just concluded a fair and free election where the opposition won the election and the president willingly accepted the results and stepped down.

There is no mechanism for accountability. Mechanism for fair and free means for the population to elect their own representatives is not in place. As a result, the Somali government becomes hopelessly corrupt and is why the TFG is bigger than that of the India. Somali does not need 4o cabinet ministers, it needs less than 12 ministers and that is overkill. While the government is selling their ammunition, their UN trained soldiers are defecting to the insurgents,  Al-Shabab has taken control of central and southern Somalia. Al-Shabab is rapidly growing to become the largest insurgency in the horn of Africa. Refugees and mass displacement of three million civilians is becoming the worst humanitarian disaster since 1970’s. Piracy plague is growing and live is becoming unbearable for the local Somali population. The UN food is being sold by government employees to highest bidder and the mal-governance of Somalia is multiplying.

The UN, US, European Union and African Union should tell the government of President Sharif and Prime Minister Sharmarke show progress in a specified time period or die. There should be clearly stated goals and milestones to measure their progress in security, basic services, negotiations, and ending corruption. A credible threat of de-legitimization of  this government and the entire parliament if they don’t show progress would create the kind of government that can restore peace and stability to this war ravaged country. Anything less is prolonging the misery of Somalia. The world is well advised to change the unconditional support for corruption riddled Somali Transitional Government.