Hiiraan Online

Somalis are not mourning for Al-Shabab, a grotesque and satanic death cult that specializes on killing Somalis but that is not the point.  The recent Kenyan bombing of refugee camp killing 20 women and children and wounding 45 is an early indication that people of lower Jubba region and not Al-Shabab will bear the brunt of this war, a region still reeling from famine and malnutrition.

Kenya’s killing orgy and mass violence against innocent refugees of southern Somalia cannot be justified.  Dropping unguided cluster bombs on a well known refugee camp is beginning of another mass murder against Somalia by misguided foreign army. The violence directed against Somalia is legion.  We have seen the murderous street urchins (Mooryaan), Ethiopian-Kenyan sponsored warlords, Pirates which decimated the reputation of Somalia.  We have witnessed a full scale Ethiopian invasion and relentless bombardments for months which killed thousands and wounded close to a half a million. Al-Shabab a maniacal death cult; result of American-Ethiopian joint venture went badly when they overthrow the indigenous Somali Union of Islamic Courts.

If history is any guide, the invading forces of shoot first and ask questions later always resulted them walking off Somalia with their tails between their legs.  For example, the United States intervention and the United Nations which the US handed Somalia all ended up in failure. Does anyone remember Ethiopian military invasion of Somalia resulted thousands of deaths while creating the current Al-Shabab. Or the leaders who guided Ethiopia, men like Abdullahi Yusuf and Prime Minister Gedi? They were thrown to the dogs when they were done with.

Like the opportunistic wars before it, the Kenyan expedition is not going to make Kenya safer or restore order to Southern Somalia nor is it going to make Al-Shabab insurgency go away for obvious reasons.

First, the Kenyan government sidelined the internationally recognized Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) calling them irrelevant. The Kenyans unilaterally decided to go alone training and equipping clan militias associated with clan-based militias in the lower Juba region that borders Kenya.  A tribal militia cannot give Kenya a license to invade Somalia a sovereign nation and will not guarantee their peace.  The Somali Transitional Federal Government took more than a year to form.  It was created to address Somalia’s lawlessness by creating a tribal power-sharing deal based on 4.5 tribal quotas. It was not without controversy and imperfections but it was something respected and recognized by the Somali transitional constitution. The parliament of the Somali TFG is based on this formula and they are tasked to decide issues such national sovereignty and Somalia’s territorial integrity and all matters relating to Somalia’s vital national interest. Kenya bypassing the Somali government and involving them as an afterthought is bad and critical mistake.

Kenyan government refused to contribute UNISOM forces and refused the Somali government’s request to integrate these militias into the TFG forces.  The Kenyan ill advised mission and buffer zone puts the ground work for another round of tribal warfare and will strength the hand of insurgents while weakening the Somali TFG.  We have seen enough of what unruly tribal militias can do; they rape, kidnap, extort, commit piracy and make lives of those under them a living hell. 

Secondly, Kenya with French Oil interest groups unilaterally decided to further disintegrate and divide Somalia by creating Azania Project led by a geologist named Mohamed Abdi Gandhi, a former consultant to the French Oil giant Total Corporation and one time defense minister of the current TFG.  Again, this autonomous entity called Azania or Jubba-Land is created to further the oil interest of global corporation and create a second Buffer Zone for Kenya (Kenya already has a buffer zone with Somali Northern Frontier District NFD).

Third, Kenya has no plan after the invasion. Capturing Kismayo from Al-Shabab is the easy part but what are they planning to do next?  Give the keys to tribal warlords that are fighting on the airwaves and ready to settle old scores?  Have we not learned anything from the Ethiopians? The Ethiopians overthrow a moderate Union of Islamic Courts and oversaw the birth of grotesque death-cult Al-Shabab. 

Fourth, Al-Shabab cannot be defeated by Kenyan army or clan militias because time and money is not on their side. Al-Shabab will simply go underground, after a brief reorganization a new generation will take the lead more determined and deadly than the generation before it.  Al- Shabab suicide bombing, kidnapping, and assassinations will become the rule rather than the exception.  To defeat them, there must be a legitimate government forces that are true representative of all the Somali regions and not of a particular tribe or clan. They must be paid, equipped and financed as a national army and not clan militias that would pillage, rape kidnap and extort money from the local population tomorrow.

I don’t have a crystal ball to forecast the future but I have watched this movie before: naïve foreign forces in quagmire and bogged down by insurgency. I foresee a scenario that will destroy the Kenyan tourist industry and insurgency extending further into Kenya.   I forecast an Azania State project mired and plagued by tribal wars, rife with pirates, corruption, kidnapping, extortion and punctuated by the occasional suicide bombings here and there in Nairobi and Mombasa.

The irony of all this is, it should not be this way. The Kenyan government could easily change course by working with the Somali Transitional Federal Government and not against it. They can help the Transitional Federal Government and UNISOM forces by empowering them to consolidate their power and integrate the Kenyan trained tribal militias to the forces of the Somali Transitional Federal Government. If Kenya is going to send troops into Somalia they should be part and parcel of the UNISOM forces and not a standalone enterprise.

Unilaterally sending Kenyan forces into Somalia is clear violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia and will set precedence for future misadventures for the horn of African countries.